Electric Vehicle News- Summer 2010

Recently, Ford has announced that its 2011 Lincoln MKZ Hybrid will cost the same as the non-hybrid version.

The End of Speculation for the Pricing Trends of Hybrid Electric Cars

It may be that by the time you read this, we'll know what the base MSRP will be on the Chevrolet Volt. If my instincts are correct, General Motors will make the announcement this week in San Jose at the 2010 Plug-in Conference and Exhibition.

How can I be certain, you ask? Well, without going into details, let's say I learned somewhat by accident. Actually, I was wanting to find out why early Volt owners won't be able to receive the $5,000 AT-PZEV credit in California. In turns out that in pursuing the answer to that question, I asked one of the individuals I interviewed, quite offhandedly as an afterthought before hanging up the phone, when was GM planning to announce pricing on the Volt. The individual responded by asking if I was planning to attend the Plug-in Conference.

"So, if I call you on Tuesday, you'll be able to tell me then how much the Volt will cost?" I asked.
The response, while still somewhat noncommittal, clearly signaled in my mind that Tuesday, July 27th would be the day speculation would finally end. Possessing what was clearly a BIG news scoop, I excitedly churned out two articles: one that talked about the rebate issue, but hinted at the July 27th date; and a second for our EVWorldwire that focused on the probable pricing announcement. That wire story hadn't been up 30 minutes when my source called me back and asked that I delete it. He didn't want to take away from the surprise nature of the announcement coming on Tuesday. Instead of deleting the story, we compromised. I made a slight change in the wording, one that suggested that my assumptions were more speculative in nature. The source was satisfied with this and the rest of the story remained unchanged.

That call only confirmed what I had deduced: that GM will be announcing the pricing on the Volt about the time you receive this edition of EV World Insider. Certainly, I could be completely wrong, in which case I'll have egg all over my face, but I feel pretty certain about this. As you might expect, another web site that focuses on the Volt contacted me later that evening by email to me to ask how certain I was about my story. I replied succinctly, "very certain."
"Who's your source," they then asked?

Yeah, right. Like I am going to reveal that juicy bit of information.

The Vanishing Hybrid Premium

When Ford Motor Company's Lincoln car division offers its MKZ Hybrid for sale this fall, it will be making hybrid history. It will mark the first time that two identical models, one hybrid, one a standard IC engine model will be priced identically.

Announced Ford in its press release…

When the 2011 Lincoln MKZ Hybrid goes on sale this fall, it will have an MSRP starting at $35,180, including destination and delivery. The pricing is identical to the 2011 Lincoln MKZ gas model and below the 2010 Lexus HS 250h, the MKZ Hybrid’s nearest competitor.

The Lincoln MKZ Hybrid delivers a 41 mpg fuel economy rating in the city, topping its only near competitor – the 2010 Lexus HS 250h – by 6 mpg. It also trumps the Lexus with more passenger space, more standard luxury and segment-exclusive safety features.

For more than a decade now we've fretted about the "hybrid premium" and the fact that most car buyers just aren't willing to pay it when it comes time to dicker for those new wheels. So, now what happens when that "premium" no longer exists? Exactly how Ford can afford to do this isn't entirely clear: presumably there's enough margin in both vehicles to justify it financially; and it is a great marketing ploy. It will be very interesting to see how buyers respond to this. Will Lincoln buyers opt for the improved fuel economy and assuage their fears about hybrids and battery life? Will loyal Lexus buyers, at whom this product is clearly aimed, consider switching to Lincoln, for similar reasons? Recall that last month Lexus had to stop HS 250h sales and recall the car over potential fuel fire concerns.

Settling with Paice

Rather than continuing a protracted legal battle, both Toyota and Ford Motor Company decided to settle the patent infringement lawsuit brought against them by Paice Corporation. The dispute involves the Florida-based corporation's assertion that both the Toyota and Ford hybrid drive systems violate Paice's patent and that the company is entitled to compensation. A Texas jury agreed in 2005 and forced Toyota to pay royalties on the Prius' Hybrid Synergy Drive. When Toyota introduced the Highlander and Lexus Hybrids, Paice took the Japanese carmaker back to court, this time threatening to involve the International Trade Commission with the objective of halting all shipments of Toyota and Lexus hybrids into the United States.

My first introduction to Paice was in 2002, when they were then located in Livonia, Michigan and had high hopes to licensing Alex J. Severinsky's patented, high-voltage drive system to the Detroit Big Three. For whatever reason, apparently none of them was interested, and Paice eventually retreated into the background, only to raise its head when it decided to sue Toyota, and then Ford. As you might imagine, Toyota certainly wasn't happy about the Texas jury's decision, nor about losing their appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Back on mid-October, 2009 I interviewed attorney Michael Murphy with the law firm of Coats and Bennett about the Paice v. Toyota lawsuit. What he makes clear is that Toyota's "sin" was that its engineers happened to come up with a very similar solution to Dr. Severinsky's. He told me that Toyota did not misappropriate Paice's technology. Since Ford's hybrid drive also shares similar mechanical approaches to that in Toyota's HSD, it too became the target of Paice's litigation. While none of the parties in the lawsuit will say how they settled, I think we can safely assume that Paice and its attorneys broke out bottles of bubbly last week, even if they it means they'll likely never do business in Detroit again.

The Environmental Impact of PHEVs

The air in Denver is not good, reports the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA. The city consistently violates federal air quality standards for ozone. The problem is significant enough that Xcel Energy, which provides much of the electric power for the metro region, closed down its coal-fired plant in Arapahoe in 2007, replacing it with two natural gas power plants originally built by Calpine: the Aurora plant in 2003, the Rocky Mountain Energy Center facility near Keenesburg in 2004. While still producing CO2 and nitrogen oxide, these plants are significantly cleaner than the coal-fired plant they replaced.

This led the National Renewable Energy Lab and the University of Colorado at Boulder to ask the question: What would be the environmental impact of replacing 1.7 million motor vehicles in the metro Denver area with plug-ins vehicles? According to the abstract of the study published in Environmental Science and Technology journal…

With 100% PHEV penetration, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions were reduced by 27 tons per day (tpd) from a fleet of 1.7 million vehicles and were increased by 3 tpd from power plants; VOC emissions were reduced by 57 tpd. These emission changes reduced modeled peak 8-h average ozone concentrations by approximately 2-3 ppb on most days.

Essentially, Denver would be trading the emissions of its nearly 2 million cars and trucks burning petroleum for a handful of electric power plants burning natural gas, as well as from the handful of wind farms dotting the Front Range that, as of 2009, have a generation capacity of 1,246 MW.

China Stockpiling Uranium

Since natural gas is a finite resource, there has also been talk of building a nuclear power plant in Colorado to service rural utilities in Colorado, Nebraska, New Mexico and Wyoming. Apart from the question of cost and radioactive waste disposal, there is a looming uncertainty about how to fuel such a plant. It seems the Chinese are now stockpiling supplies of uranium at a rate of twice its current consumption in anticipation of future price increases resulting from evermore demand globally. Nuclear fuel prices presently are at a four-year low, falling from a high of $136 per pound in 2007 to $41.75 today. Industry analysts expect this to rise to $60 a pound in five years. But taking advantage of low prices may not be China's only motive.

Former CIA analyst and editor of Peak Oil Review, Tom Whipple writes ...

China's demand for uranium may rise to 20,000 tons a year by 2020. That translates into more than a third of the 50,500 tons mined globally last year. All of the world's current uranium output currently has a market, supplying the existing global demand for uranium. Don't be surprised to see uranium in shortage by the second half of this decade. Looking ahead, there's just not enough new production in the planning stages. The world needs new mines, but startup costs are much higher than 10 or 20 years ago.

China currently has 12 reactors in operation and another 23 under construction, with others in development, according to the World Nuclear Association.

70 Days on 7 Gallons

With around 25 per cent of fuel remaining in LIVN GRN's fuel tank, I filled up our 2009 Prius with just over 7 gallons of gasoline at our local Shell service station. My wife and I were headed out to Lyon's, Nebraska some 75 miles north and west of our home here in Papillion, just south of Omaha. I had been invited to give a talk on 'Greening Your Transportation' at the Nebraska Renewable Energy Fair and knew that we'd need more than the couple of gallons of fuel remaining in the Prius' fuel bladder to make the trip up and back.

Now there is nothing particularly remarkable about what I did yesterday, except that the last time I paid for gasoline to refuel the LIVN GRN was May 14th, some 70 days ago! In that time, my wife had driven to-and-from work, gone shopping, and taken us out to dinner. Only about a week of that time, while we were away on holiday/vacation back East, did the car not get driven. What driving was done, was almost entirely in EV-mode. There were a couple times when, due to summer heat and humidity, we used the AC system, or drove the car in blended hybrid mode, but as a general rule, trips to the store, post office and her workplace were Electric-First™ using locally-produced energy from Omaha Public Power District.

So, how'd Judy do? She drove the car 965 miles (1553km), consuming 7.32 gallons (27.7L) of gasoline, or the equivalent of 131.8 mpg or 1.78L/100km. How much electrical power we consumed, I can't say with the same precision since I haven't been keeping close tabs on that, but generally, her 11 mile commute consumers about half of the available energy in 6.1kWh battery pack. The PICC NiMH system is programmed to use about 65% of the pack: ranging from a high of 89% SOC down to 24% SOC before reverting back to normal Prius mode. That works out to be about 2kWh per workday commute. Excluding the week we vacationed in Cape Cod and New Jersey, that's 9 workweeks or 45 workdays at 2kWh per day for a total of some 90 kWh of electrical power, plus the gasoline we consumed. Here in Omaha we pay just under 7¢ a kilowatt hour thanks to Nebraska’s being exclusively a public power state with a 'least cost' clause in each utility's charter that relies largely on cheap Wyoming coal, as well as power from two nuclear generation facilities. At any rate, I estimate that Judy's commute for the last 70 days cost us about $7 in electricity and $20 in gasoline, or the equivalent to 2.8¢ per mile.

The one regret I had yesterday was actually filling the tank up so that I could estimate our fuel economy. At the present rate, unless we make any long trips yet this summer, it may well be into the fall before we have to refuel again. I just hate the thought of carrying all that extra weight of gasoline around now! As for the trip up to Lyon's and back, the Prius averaged just over 53 mpg as we motored through beautiful rural countryside, windows down.

Prototype of Randal Fishman's ElectraFlyer X all-electric, two-place aircraft

The e-Planes of Oshkosh

Seriously, actually I would love to attend this year because for the very first time after 57 previous fly-ins, the aviation love-fest on the banks of Lake Michigan, will be holding an all-day symposium on electrically-powered aircraft featuring several of the pioneers in the field including Burt Rutan (Scaled Composites), Randall Fishman (Electric Aircraft Corporation), Tian Yu (Yuneec Aircraft), John Monnett (Sonex Aircraft) and Mark Beierle (Earthstar Aircraft).
Here is the schedule for the event, which will be held in the Eagle Hanger Mainstage.

9:00 AM - 9:15 AM Symposium Welcome
9:15 AM - 9:30 AM Manned Electric Flight
9:30 AM - 10:30 AM Electric Flight Keynote
10:30 AM - 11:00 AM Electric Aviation Vision
11:00 AM - 11:45 AM Solar Impulse
11:45 AM - 12:15 PM LEAP Prize
12:15 PM - 1:00 PM Electric Aircraft Builder
1:15 PM - 1:45 PM Electrification Roadmap
1:45 PM - 2:30 PM Future Electric Mobility
2:30 PM - 3:15 PM NASA & Electric Aircraft
3:15 PM - 4:00 PM Electric Power Technology
4:00 PM - 4:45 PM Auto Electrification
4:45 PM - 5:00 PM ASTM Electric Aircraft

Electrification Roadmap and Congress

On July 21, 2010, the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee approved the "Electric Drive Vehicle Deployment Act of 2010" by a overwhelmingly bipartisan vote of 19-4. Senate Bill 3442 would seek among other things to create no fewer than 5 and no more than 15 model electric vehicle communities, across which some 700,000 plug-in vehicles, which can include NEVs, would be deployed over the course of a five-year, Phase I effort. The lessons learned by those communities would serve to assist more Phase II communities in switching to grid-charged vehicles, the goal being to have as many as 100 million EVs in operation in the United States by 2030.

Since this bill clearly transcends the often vitriolic partisan politics that characterize Washington, D.C. of late, getting broad support among the entire 100-member Senate would seem a given, but that is not necessarily how things work in America these days.

I called Senator Ben Nelson's office and spoke at some length with his staff about having Nelson, who represents my state of Nebraska, lend his support to the bill by calling on Majority Leader Harry Reid to include it in his pared down energy bill due for debate on the floor of the Senate this week. At least according to staff, that's unlikely to happen for a number of reasons, including time constraints: Congress leaves for its August recess after next week. Reid has told his fellow Democratic senators that he wants to get his bill through before then and doesn't want it encumbered by add-ons. Nelson's staff told me I wasn't the only constituent who called last week; the wind and ethanol lobbies are wanting to add riders to Reid's bill, as well; and the more riders, the less chance his bill will pass. As of Friday, there was only a general sense of what the Nevada Senator's bill would address: measures to cover the Gulf Oil disaster and incentives for natural gas vehicles, among the four key provisions.

Still, there is a chance that S3442 could be added during debate given the wide support it appears to enjoy on both sides of the aisle. Nelson's staff said they'd call Senator Dorgan's office, the bill's sponsor, to assess their intentions. I have it on good authority -- i.e. Robbie Diamond with Secure America's Future Energy (SAFE) -- that "Dorgan is all over this."
As for my part, I found this an enjoyable, informative, and interesting exercise in political lobbying, something I could seriously get into, I am afraid.

http://evworld.com/insider.cfm?id=273